September 11th 2021

Where will the USA be on 9/11?

Right now deaths are averaging about a 1000/day. Deaths have been doubling every 2 weeks (5%/day growth rate) for a month. If this trend continues, that will put the USA at nearly 3000 deaths per day on September 11th.

Massachusetts deaths have been doubling every 3.3 weeks (3%/day) from a lower starting point per capita. Masssacusetts contribution to that US total could be an average of less than 15/day due to its USA leading vaccination rate and voluntary/required masking practices.

Vaccinated and Unvaccinated States

People probably have a qualitative sense of how things are playing out with the current Delta surge in states with high and low vaccination rates, but it is instructive to look at the trends. The Covid-19 trending app now has two groups defined (high and low vaccination rate states) to illustrate this.

Here is the current per-capita ranking of states based on full vaccination. They range from about 37% for MS to 67% for MA.

Combining the top five and bottom five states into two groups -shows they average ~39% for the low vaccination group of states and ~63% for the high vaccination group.

So how are these sets of states fairing in the current Delta surge that began around June 23rd?

Cases are running higher and rising faster in the low vaccination states:

Daily deaths are high and rising in low vaccination states while they are trending flat in high vaccination states.