Updated MA Hospital Admission Forecast

Back on April 11th, when the reported hospital admission total was ~2000, the forecast for May 4th was a total of 5800 admissions by May 4th with a peak on April 15th. On April 11th there was a 1-time ~1000 admission increase in reported cases are more hospital data was incorporated into the total. The reported total on May 4th was 6622, so within 200 admissions of the forecasts adjusting for the step change in reporting.

Using a forecasting data window of April 22th to May 4th , the forecast currently points to a June 1st total of ~8600 cummulative admissions by June 1st.

This curve shows a peak on April 17th and the growth rate in daily admissions dropping at 7.6% per day. The data prior to 4/22 is quite noisy and low during what should have been the peak based on the fit.

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