Newton May 13th Update

Newton Covid-19 data is now incorporated in app.jackprior.org. The forecast shows Newton largely through its infection period, with cases potentially starting to average under 1 new case per day 10 days from now. Newton has had 675 cases and is forecast to have another 25. Newton has been steadily slowing its case growth by 9%/day, which is quite fast compared with Massachusetts as a whole, which has been steadily dropping at -5.9%/day.

More importantly, Newton has dropped its case growth to close to 0.1%/day, which is the threshold that China and South Korea reached in nearly eradicating the virus from their countries. Newton as a city is doing better than all but Hawaii and Montana in the US in terms of daily case growth. In contrast, Massachusetts is currently at 2% daily case growth and is not forecast to reach 0.1% until July 1st, and that assumes social distancing is sustained in the state until then. This means that the rate of daily infections in Newton could easily rise due to higher levels of the virus entering the city from other parts of the state depending on when and how the city and state reopen.

Deaths in Newton have reached 86. The model forecasts another 25 deaths for a total of 111, although this is highly dependent on the success of nursing homes in managing infections.

Newton Deaths

Nationally, not all states are sustaining their flattening. MN and AL have concerning pauses in their case growth reduction curve, although MN appears to be getting back on track. Newton’s safety will ultimately rest on how effective the country and the world as a whole is in driving the virus toward eradication.

Graphs from the links above. Click on the image to jump to the live analysis.

Newton Daily Cases over time
Newton Total Cases over time
Newton Case Growth Rate
Massachusetts Case Growth Rate
China case growth rate in initial and follow-on flattening.
South Korea Case growth rate
Hawaii case growth rate

Top and bottom 20 states in terms of their project case growth rates two weeks from now.
Alabama case growth rate

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