Newton May 20th Update

Newton has 710 cases and is forecast to have another 20 to 730. It has 105 deaths and is forecast to have another 25 to 130. The new totals do not reflect a surge in cases but instead reflect cases with initial symptoms several weeks back with delayed reporting.

On a per-capita basis (assuming an approximate population of 85,000), Newton has had 1235 deaths per million residents. That ranks higher than all other countries and US states and ahead of NJ and NY.

Newton has a case fatality rate of 14.8%, which ranks 3rd behind France and Belgium. That means over 1 in 7 of residents diagnosed with Covid-19 have died from it.

This likely reflects our severe nursing home impacts rather than under testing of the general population. The average infection fatality rate across all age groups is believed to be about 0.6%.

The city’s is averaging ~3 new cases per day and is forecast to drop to 1 at the end of the month. This is down from a peak average of 20 cases per day.

You can explore Newton data and other countries/states using http://app.jackprior.org. Plots below:

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