Latest Projections (21Apr)

It is surprisingly hard to do things in R that are easy in Excel, but at least now it is automated using data from This is hot of the press and needs debugging and sensitivity analysis. I am not an epidemiologist and am just looking for simple patterns to extrapolate. Some of these projections seem unreasonable, or perhaps just depressing. In particular, the extrapolations for deaths seem too high for Massachusetts at the moment.

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Projecting Massachusetts COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

Information on Massachusetts Hospital Admissions is available on the Mass.Gov COVID-19 Cases, Quarantine and Monitoring website. The growth rate* in daily admissions has been declining exponentially over time since social distancing was implemented.

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Projecting the Flattening Curve In the United States

[Daily Plot at bottom added 4/17]

As countries around the world have implemented social distancing, they have seen an exponential decrease in their daily case growth rates, each likely reflecting their distancing practices. This pattern can be used to project estimates of how cases and deaths will progress in the US in the coming weeks and months.

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The Science of Social Distancing

Here are some computational fluid dynamics simulations done by CBBL@OSU of someone coughing at various distances from ANSYS using the Fluent software.

Click on this video to see how keeping social distance keeps you and others safer.

Note that a COVID-19 positive patient may be releasing viral particles of various sizes and smaller/lighter particles will linger in air longer than heavier respiratory droplets.