Newton – Covid19.JackPrior.Org

Newton May 13th Update

Newton Covid-19 data is now incorporated in app.jackprior.org. The forecast shows Newton largely through its infection period, with cases potentially starting to average under 1 new case per day 10 days from now. Newton has had 675 cases and is forecast to have another 25. Newton has been steadily slowing its case growth by 9%/day, which is quite fast compared with Massachusetts as a whole, which has been steadily dropping at -5.9%/day.

Newton 4/23 Update

The Mayor’s office updated the way it reports data to track it back to the date of initial symptoms rather than when the case was confirmed. Previously case reports had gaps and jumped up intermittently. This data also gives detailed daily data going back to the 1st reported case on 2/28.

Latest Projections (21Apr)

It is surprisingly hard to do things in R that are easy in Excel, but at least now it is automated using data from covidtracking.com. This is hot of the press and needs debugging and sensitivity analysis. I am not an epidemiologist and am just looking for simple patterns to extrapolate. Some of these projections seem unreasonable, or perhaps just depressing. In particular, the extrapolations for deaths seem too high for Massachusetts at the moment.

Newton 4/14 Update

Until April 8th Newton had been following a relatively smooth trajectory of initial post-social-distancing slowing of Covid-19 cases similar to that see in the US. On that day the Mayor announced that ~68 Covid-19 cases had been detected in a local nursing home, adding 39% to Newton’s then total of 178 cases.

COVID-19 IN NEWTON, MA

Updated 4/5/20 8pm

My family had a cancellation decision to make for a Vietnam holiday at the end of February so I have been following the COVID-19 data closely, first in China, then beyond China, then in the US, and now in Newton. See the bottom of this post for more information on the broader trends.