Updated 5Apr:SOCIAL DISTANCING IS WORKING
US COVID-19 cases are currently doubling every 5.1 days. That is 50% slower than its initial exponential phase prior to social distancing when cases were doubling every 2. 4 days. The US is on track to hit one million cases on April 13th.
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The pandemic started in Wuhan, China, where, after accumulating just 41 deaths, the city and province were fully locked down with authoritarian intensity and the remainder of the massive country went to shelter in place. They were able to reverse their growing death rate about 30 days on 24 Feb and reached the point where Wuhan could unlock (albeit with many controls in place a month after that (so 8 weeks). The rest of China was able to unlock earlier as they caught the epidemic early enough for contact tracing and isolation to limit it.
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Updated 4/5/20 8pm
My family had a cancellation decision to make for a Vietnam holiday at the end of February so I have been following the COVID-19 data closely, first in China, then beyond China, then in the US, and now in Newton. See the bottom of this post for more information on the broader trends.
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