Until April 8th Newton had been following a relatively smooth trajectory of initial post-social-distancing slowing of Covid-19 cases similar to that see in the US. On that day the Mayor announced that ~68 Covid-19 cases had been detected in a local nursing home, adding 39% to Newton’s then total of 178 cases.Continue reading “Newton 4/14 Update”
Information on Massachusetts Hospital Admissions is available on the Mass.Gov COVID-19 Cases, Quarantine and Monitoring website. The growth rate* in daily admissions has been declining exponentially over time since social distancing was implemented.Continue reading “Projecting Massachusetts COVID-19 Hospital Admissions”
[Daily Plot at bottom added 4/17]
As countries around the world have implemented social distancing, they have seen an exponential decrease in their daily case growth rates, each likely reflecting their distancing practices. This pattern can be used to project estimates of how cases and deaths will progress in the US in the coming weeks and months.Continue reading “Projecting the Flattening Curve In the United States”
Financial markets rose today on signs that the virus is being slowed in the EU and providing hope that #SocialDistancing can achieve the near eradication of #COVID19 seen in China.Continue reading “Today’s optimism”
Here are some computational fluid dynamics simulations done by CBBL@OSU of someone coughing at various distances from ANSYS using the Fluent software.
Click on this video to see how keeping social distance keeps you and others safer.
Note that a COVID-19 positive patient may be releasing viral particles of various sizes and smaller/lighter particles will linger in air longer than heavier respiratory droplets.
Summary: People think there are a huge number of undetected COVID19 cases out there due to lack of testing and symptoms. This analysis suggest there are not. US cases may be 40-350% higher.Continue reading “What is the COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate?”
Updated 5Apr:SOCIAL DISTANCING IS WORKING
US COVID-19 cases are currently doubling every 5.1 days. That is 50% slower than its initial exponential phase prior to social distancing when cases were doubling every 2. 4 days. The US is on track to hit one million cases on April 13th.Continue reading “COVID-19 IN THE UNITED STATES”
The pandemic started in Wuhan, China, where, after accumulating just 41 deaths, the city and province were fully locked down with authoritarian intensity and the remainder of the massive country went to shelter in place. They were able to reverse their growing death rate about 30 days on 24 Feb and reached the point where Wuhan could unlock (albeit with many controls in place a month after that (so 8 weeks). The rest of China was able to unlock earlier as they caught the epidemic early enough for contact tracing and isolation to limit it.Continue reading “COVID-19 IN CHINA”
Updated 4/5/20 8pm
My family had a cancellation decision to make for a Vietnam holiday at the end of February so I have been following the COVID-19 data closely, first in China, then beyond China, then in the US, and now in Newton. See the bottom of this post for more information on the broader trends.Continue reading “COVID-19 IN NEWTON, MA”